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16/10/2025
Investment Strategy in H2 2025: Strengthening internal fundamentals
Industry reports

Investment Strategy in H2 2025: Strengthening internal fundamentals

We revised down our earnings growth forecast for listed companies on HOSE from 16.2% YoY to 14.1% YoY due to the higher-than-expected 2024 net profit base in our previous estimates and downward revisions to the earnings outlook for the Banking, Oil & Gas and Information Technology sectors. Meanwhile, we raised our net profit forecasts for the Real Estate, Basic Resources, Travel & Leisure and Retail sectors. Amid global economic uncertainty driven by ongoing shifts in trade policies under US President Donald Trump’s administration, we favor sectors and companies with a strong domestic focus that are well-positioned to benefit from structural reforms, improvements in the legal and regulatory environment and pro-growth policies in Vietnam’s new era of development, as highlighted in our H2 2025 Investment Strategy Report. 2025 marks a turning point for Vietnam’s economy as it focuses on internal growth drivers, builds foundational conditions for a period of high economic growth, including modern connectivity infrastructure, data systems, core digital technologies and a comprehensive financial market. In this context, we believe that sectors such as Public Investment, Real Estate, Banking, Securities and Information Technology will benefit. We observed strong commitment from the Government to infrastructure investment at central and local levels in 2025. This will have a positive impact on several sectors such as Infrastructure Construction and Materials. Accelerated public investment not only drives direct growth in construction and materials sectors but also creates spillover effects across various economic industries, including Residential Real Estate, through improvements in urban and regional connectivity infrastructure. This is one of three key drivers, with legal bottleneck resolution and the wave of urbanization in suburban provinces that are supporting the mid-end housing supply, narrowing the supply - demand mismatch and facilitating a recovery phase for the real estate market. To ensure sufficient capital for economic growth, bank credit will continue expanding. This will offset the negative impact of declining net interest margins and the slower than expected improvement in asset quality compared to our expectations earlier this year. In addition, the codification of Resolution 42 will support banks in accelerating the debt resolution and recovery process. As part of the strategic direction toward developing a comprehensive financial market, we expect strong growth in the stock market soon, given its role as an effective capital mobilisation channel for the economy. TVS Research expects Vietnam to be upgraded to Secondary Emerging Market status in FTSE’s September 2025 review, which would help attract foreign capital back to the market and positively impact the business performance of the Securities sector. For the Information Technology sector, we believe that digital transformation and AI adoption are accelerating, serving as key growth drivers for the industry. The government is also intensifying the national digital transformation agenda and promoting the development of digital technologies, creating significant opportunities for IT companies to contribute to nation building in this new era. TVS Research also sees investment opportunities in the Retail sector, supported by sustained growth in consumer spending and the ongoing modernization of the industry. Modern retail channels are gaining market share from traditional formats by better meeting the evolving needs of consumers. In addition, we hold a positive view on Aviation companies in 2025, supported by strong growth in international passenger arrivals to Vietnam, high ticket prices and lower fuel costs as global oil prices remain subdued. TVS Research maintains a positive long-term outlook for the Industrial Real Estate sector. In H2 2025, we continue to hold positions in industrial real estate stocks but shift toward lower risk investment options within the sector, supported by revenue contributions from other business segments. For short-term investment themes, TVS Research maintains its focus on large-cap stocks with strong business performance and available foreign ownership room to attract foreign inflows as the stock market is upgraded.

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31/07/2025
H2 2025 Macro Strategy Report

H2 2025 Macro Strategy Report

Global Economy – Global economic growth is expected to weaken in the H2 2025 due to the burden of tariffs On April 2, 2025, the US announced reciprocal tariffs on imports from over 90 trading partners. However, the enforcement was temporarily postponed to July 9 and subsequently to August 1. In response, many countries sharply increased their exports to mitigate the potential negative impacts, creating a short-term boost to global economic growth in the H1. We revised our forecast for global economic growth in 2025 down from 2.7% to 2.3%. In the US, slowing economic growth coupled with rising inflation will complicate the Fed’s rate-cut decision. Nevertheless, we maintain our view that the FEDwill lower its policy rate by 50bps. In China, we assume economic growth to decelerate in H2 2025 as US reciprocal tariffs begin to weigh on manufacturing and exports. Vietnam Macroeconomy – Public investment and retail & services will be the main drivers of economic growth in H2 2025 TVS Research maintains our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Vietnam at 7.2%. While the export turnover growth forecast was revised down to 9.8% (from the previous 11.0%) due to the impact of tariffs on US and global consumer demand, domestic drivers are expected to offset this decline. We believe that accelerated public investment disbursement and stronger retail & service activity compared to H1 2025 will be the key growth drivers in H2 2025. Monetary Market - Exchange rate pressures are expected to ease in H2 TVS Research believes the SBV will adopt a flexible monetary policy stance to support economic growth, thereby maintaining low interest rates through the end of 2025. TVS Research forecasts the average USD/VND exchange rate to increase by approximately 3.5% in 2025. The pace of VND depreciation is expected to slow in H2 2025 as USD supply improves thanks to stronger FDI inflows and remittances toward year-end. Additionally, a potential FED rate cut would narrow the interest rate differential between the VND and the USD.

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25/06/2025
May Macro Report

May Macro Report

Global economy – The US and China reached a tariff agreement that will pave the way for negotiations involving other countries The US and China have reached a provisional tariff agreement, under which US import tariffs are set at 55% and Chinese’s at 10%. This reflects the US’s willingness to adjust tariff levels in pursuit of certain trade or political objectives. For Vietnam, we believe negotiations will be more challenging, as the criteria set forth by the US primarily aim to reduce the volume of Chinese goods entering Vietnam. In the near term, Vietnam may strengthen coordination on origin tracing to limit transshipment activities from China. However, reducing imports from China will be difficult, as these goods are input materials for many companies, most of which are FDI enterprises. Vietnam economy – Export value to the US in May 2025 reached the highest level in history Export - import growth is expected to accelerate throughout Q2 2025 but is projected to slow down in Q3. Manufacturing PMI and IIP have only shown a short-term recovery, driven by rising output. While registered FDI in May surged significantly compared to the same period last year (+100% YoY), driven by inflows into the Real Estate sector. Public investment disbursement increased strongly in May 2025 (+17.5% YoY), raising the 5-month disbursement rate to 24.3%, higher than the same period in 2024.

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14/05/2025
April Macro Report

April Macro Report

Global Macro – TVS Research believes the FED will maintain interest rates in the coming months amid uncertainty over its policy targets. In April, Vietnam dispatched a negotiation delegation to the US to discuss reducing reciprocal tariffs imposed on export goods. Nevertheless, TVS Research notes that the US-Vietnam trade negotiation process may be prolonged due to stringent US demands. In the US, the FED continued to delay interest cuts amid concerns over a potential inflation rebound and a still-resilient economy. However, the central bank may need to reassess its policy as early signs of economic weakening, even before reciprocal tariffs take effect. Vietnam Macro – TVS Research expects that Vietnam’s exports are poised for robust growth through Q2 2025. Companies exporting to the US are accelerating production to fulfill orders ahead of the reciprocal tariff deadline on July 9. New orders declined sharply in April, reflecting growing concerns among foreign firms over the outcome of trade negotiations with the US.

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13/03/2025
February Market Report

February Market Report

The VN-Index ended February at 1,305 points, up 3.1% compared to January 2025. The average daily trading value on the HSX reached VND 15,855 billion per session, marking a sharp increase from the previous month's average trading value (+39.2% MoM). Capital inflows were mainly concentrated at the end of the month as the VN-Index surpassed the 1,300 threshold and continued its upward momentum. In February, the stock market had a robust growth, surpassed the negative factors outlined in our January update report which was the new tariff policies of the Trump administration. Currently, although these negative factors persist, thVN-Index is maintaining above the 1,300 level thanks to (1) the regulatory authorities’ efforts to sustain an easing monetary and fiscal policy stance, (2) expectations regarding the market’s potential upgrade and the implementation of the KRX trading system in 2025, and (3) rotational support from Banking and Real Estate stocks. For March 2025, TVS Research expects that although the VN-Index could remains upward trend toward the resistance zone of 1,350 – 1,366 despite of experiencing short-term fluctuations. This is driven by the likelihood that individual investors’ capital will continue flowing into the market, as alternative investment channels are currently underperforming compared to the VN-Index.

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