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Address: Room 402, TĐL Building, 22 Lang Ha, Dong Da District, Hanoi

Research center

Our product portfolio includes but is not limited to company and sector reports, technical snapshots, and monthly strategic allocation papers. TVS Research has also collaborated with Nhip Cau Dau Tu Newspaper as a strategic advisor in an annual project to determine Vietnam Top 50 Enterprises

Research reports

20250117_December Market Report

The VN-Index closed in December at 1,266 (+1.2% MoM) and continued to move sideways from 1,200 to 1,300 when there was no strong enough positive factor to help the market break through the 1,300-resistance level. The average market liquidity in December reached VND 14,595 billion per session, which was unchanged compared to November. The low trading value indicated that investors remain cautious as the Vn-index has maintained a sideways trend since June 2024. The market cash flow in January 2025 may not recover as the long holiday season approaches. Other investment channels such as gold and cryptocurrency also contribute to the impact on stock market liquidity. TVS Research believes that the VN-Index will not fluctuate robustly in Q1 2025 and maintain a sideways trend in the 1,200 - 1,300 range.

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13/01/2025

20250117_December Macro Report

Global economy – FED may slow the pace of rate cuts due to inflation concerns in 2025 In December, the FED continued to lower its interest rate by an additional 25 basis points, bringing the FED interest rate to a range of 4.25% – 4.5%. However, the Federal Reserve may slow the pace of rate cuts in 2025 to mitigate the risk of inflation resurgence following Trump's return to the presidency. TVS Research maintained our forecast that China’s economy will grow below 5% in 2024, as key components of its GDP show no signs of recovery. Vietnam Economy – Retail and services sectors achieved impressive results in the final month of 2024 Retail sales of goods and services exhibited robust growth in December 2024 (+9.3% YoY), driven by increased consumer spending during the year-end period. The Services and Industrial & Construction sector served as the primary contributors to Vietnam’s GDP growth. Money Market – Exchange rates and interbank rates kept increasing The VND continued to depreciate by an additional 0.6 percentage points in December, bringing the total annual depreciation in 2024 to 5%, on par with other currencies in the region, reflecting the SBV’s management efforts throughout the year. Overnight interbank interest rates fluctuated between 3.0% - 4.5% during the final month of the year. The improved deposit growth and more evenly distributed credit disbursement in the closing months of 2024 contributed to moderating the upward pressure on interbank interest rates in December. Commodities Market – Prices unchanged in December Global commodities prices experienced a modest increase in December (+1.8% MoM). In December, the increase in oil and food prices, represented by wheat prices, was mainly driven by higher year-end demand in major global economies, excluding China.

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31/12/2024

20241231_November Macro report

Global economy – The risk of a US-China trade war rose after Trump intend to implement higher tariffs on Chinese imports U.S. President Donald Trump has proposed to raise tariffs on goods imported from China from 50% to 60%, increasing concerns over trade tensions and boosting the DXY index. TVS Research forecasts the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by 25 basis points in December when slightly rising inflation and persistent labour market weakness. Meanwhile, China's economic growth for 2024 is expected to remain below the 5% target as the real estate market has not recovered despite an economic stimulus package. Vietnam Economy – Export & import activities remained stable and retail sales achieved impressive results Export and import activities maintained stable growth in November 2024. Exports are expected to reach the government’s target of USD 400 billion for the year, driven by rising global demand during the year-end period. The retail sector achieved positive results, supported by increased consumer spending during the holiday season and a significant boost in tourism services. Money Market – Exchange rates and interbank rates increased The USD/VND exchange rate remained high in November 2024. However, we maintain the view that exchange rate pressures will ease in the year's final month. Overnight interbank interest rates stabilized at around 4-5% in the latter half of November, supported by net liquidity injections from the SBV through open market operations, while deposit rates at some individual banks saw a slight increase. TVS Research forecasts that deposit rates will continue to face upward pressure in the final month of the year. Commodities Market – Prices unchanged in November Global commodity prices were stable in November, with the BCOM index showing little change. In November, Crude oil prices remained steady, while gold prices fell by 3% due to eased tensions in the Middle East. Wheat prices sharply declined, driven by increased supply from Russia and lower maritime freight rates in the Black Sea.

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22/11/2024

Q4 2024 Market Strategy Update

VN-Index ended Q3 at 1,287 points (+2.7% QoQ), maintaining a sideways trend around 1,240 – 1,300. Average liquidity on HOSE in this quarter decreased to 16,545 billion VND/session (-25.6% QoQ). Declining market liquidity prevented VN-Index from surpassing the resistance level of 1,300 while net selling pressure from foreign investors, the main factor causing VN-Index to move sideways, narrowed in Q3. Average liquidity on HOSE decreased in Q3/2024 mainly due to the impact of the cash flow of individual investors. In Q4 2024, TVS Research forecasts the target of VN-Index by the end of 2024 to be around 1,260 points in the context of (1) market liquidity is unlikely to break through in Q4 2024, (2) The estimated profit growth of the whole market will only increase slightly to +16.7% YoY, and (3) the high anchored USD/VND exchange rate affects investor sentiment.

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22/11/2024

Q4 2024 Macro Strategy Update

Global Macroeconomics – FED begins rate cuts in Q3 2024, paving the way for Central Banks worldwide to continue easing in Q4 2024 In the U.S. Fed cut interest rates in September and November by a total of 75 bps. This decision was driven by well-controlled inflation and weakened labor market, and the need for Fed intervention to provide support. Despite these challenges, U.S. GDP growth in Q3 remained at 2.4% YoY, primarily supported by consumer spending. Although the European Central Bank cut rates twice, totaling 50 bps, economic growth in the Eurozone remained sluggish in Q3. We believe this weak growth trend will persist in Q4, as the region continues to face negative impacts from prolonged geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine. PBOC implemented economic stimulus measures in September to boost growth. However, the recovery in the property market, a key component of China’s economy, remains slow. As a result, TVS Research projects that China is unlikely to achieve its 5% GDP growth target for 2024. Vietnam Macroeconomics – Export-driven growth continues to propel Vietnam’s economy Vietnam’s GDP grew by 6.8% YoY in 9M 2024, with exports (+15% YoY) serving as the primary driver, led by the FDI sector. Inflation was contained at an average of 3.8% YoY, below the government’s 4.5% target. However, the USD/VND exchange rate increased toward the end of Q3, driven by a stronger USD as U.S. economic indicators showed resilience. We expect economic growth in Q4 2024 to remain robust, supported by manufacturing and exports, particularly during the year-end shopping season in key export markets. Additionally, we anticipate easing exchange rate pressures by year-end due to (1) narrowing USD/VND interest rate differentials as the Fed continues its rate-cutting cycle and (2) increased USD supply from trade surpluses, FDI disbursements, and remittances during the final months of the year.

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